Cryptocurrency Winter 2026 Learning from the collapse of 2022
Will Bitcoin reach zero?
Can we survive the crypto winter in 2026?
Collapse and winter of 2022
The cryptocurrency market has experienced several major bankruptcies, primarily during the "crypto winter" of 2022 and subsequent market volatility, affecting both institutional holders and retail investors.
From 2022 April to 2023 Sep
It is about a year and half.
Lowest $16,778 USD Highest $64,402
FTX & Alameda Research (2022): Collapsed with billions in liabilities after fraudulent activity.
Bitcoin sank to its lowest price in two years Lowest $16,778
The crisis at FTX has inspired an increase in withdrawals from other exchanges. well.
To keep the price low, the bankrupt companies' Bitcoins were not sold on exchanges, and the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust was able to buy them at a discount of 42% below the value of Bitcoin
Celsius Network (2022): Crypto lender that filed for bankruptcy after freezing user accounts.
Distribution of over $3 billion worth of cryptocurrency and fiat currency to its creditors,
Voyager Digital (2022): Crypto broker that filed for bankruptcy after exposure to Three Arrows Capital.
Asset Sell-off: Reports from February 2023 indicated that Voyager was sending various cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH), to exchanges to be converted into cash for creditor repayments.
15,250 Bitcoins
As of May 2023, customers were expected to recover roughly 36% of their holdings, with the option for some to receive their digital assets directly, while others were sold.
As of the latest updates in 2024, the liquidation, which involved converting Bitcoin and other assets into cash for distribution, was still ongoing.
BlockFi (2022): Crypto lender with heavy exposure to FTX.
In November 2022, BlockFi sold approximately $239 million worth of cryptocurrency to fund operations and restructuring. This sale was part of a broader liquidity crisis driven by exposure to the FTX collapse.
Genesis Global Capital (2023): Crypto lender that filed for bankruptcy with over $3.4B in debt.
As of August 2024, Genesis completed its restructuring and began distributing over $4 billion in cash and cryptocurrency to its creditors.
Mt. Gox (2014): Handled 70% of transactions before losing 850,000 BTC.
Repayment Progress: As of late 2025, approximately 19,500 creditors have received payments in Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash, but many others are still waiting, prompting the deadline extension to address procedural delays.
Remaining Holdings: As of March 2025, the trustee still holds roughly 34,000–35,000 BTC (valued at over $3 billion) to be distributed.
Summary
A small number of companies go bankrupt
Crypto assets are converted into cash and paid to the debtor. Crypto asset prices also fall further
In order to avoid lowering the price of Bitcoin, there are cases where Bitcoin is traded directly at a discounted price without going through an exchange, or where crypto assets are distributed to debtors without being converted into cash.
Debt processing may take more than two years.
Why did the price of Bitcoin rise to $126,198.07 ?
With the advent of the Trump administration, Bitcoin has been promoted, and many companies and banks have entered the market, making it easier to purchase through ETFs.
Why did the price drop from $126,198 to $6,400 in 5 months?
Treasury companies that buy and hoard Bitcoin, such as Strategy Inc and Metaplanet, contributed to the price hike, but the average purchase price of Bitcoin exceeded the price of Bitcoin, resulting in unrealized losses, which caused anxiety and led to many sales.
There are some people who say that the amount will be $200,000 dollars by the end of this year and 1 million dollars in the future. Is that possible?
It's more likely impossible.
It is too risky to invest in something that will lose half its value in five months.
Since many treasury companies have losses, it is difficult for new treasury companies to enter the market. Also, it is difficult to buy more.
The average purchase price for ETF investors is approximately $84,990 to $90,000, meaning many holders are saddled with large unrealized losses. Difficult to get in as a newbie.
Is it possible for Bitcoin to go to zero?
Yes. If prices continue to remain low, mining companies will go bankrupt, Bitcoin treasury companies (as of the end of 2025, more than 150 listed companies have adopted this model) will go bankrupt, and ETFs will also suffer. The scale of the loss is different compared to 2022. Bankruptcy processing will take about two years, but the market shock will likely be significant.
Take a look at the top below
Total of 800,000 coins in ETF iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF
Mining company MARA Holdings, Inc. Total 53,250 coins
Treasury company Strategy total 717,131 coins
If Bitcoin reaches zero, banks and many companies will go bankrupt. President Trump is promoting this, so there is a possibility that relief will be provided in some way.
Bankruptcy of mining companies
Feb 09, 2026 Bitcoin mining company NFN8 has filed for bankruptcy protection and is seeking to sell its assets. The price of Bitcoin has fallen, and a continuing company is unable to make a profit.
The following mining companies: MARA Holdings, Inc, CleanSpark, Inc. MARA Holdings, Inc. has a lot of debt and holds a large number of Bitcoins, so be careful.
Possible bankruptcy of Bitcoin treasury companies.
A Bitcoin treasury company, represented by Strategy Inc., Strategy Inc. (formerly MicroStrategy) operates as a unique "Bitcoin Treasury Company," with a business model focused on aggressively accumulating Bitcoin using capital raised from debt (convertible notes) and equity financing. Moreover, the unheard-of business model of borrowing money to continue buying Bitcoin will cause the price of Bitcoin to rise. The value of the company increases. As the value of Bitcoin declines, unrealized losses will increase and the companies might go bankrupt.
As of the end of 2025, more than 150 listed companies have adopted this model.
Nakamoto Inc, listed in the table below, has received a delisting notice from Nasdaq. If improvements are not made by June 2026, the company will be delisted. Other small treasury companies have also received delisting notices.
Japan's Metaplanet has fallen into excess debt once in 2023, and this year the unrealized loss has expanded to $1.4 billion, making this the second time. Excess debt was confirmed in December 2025, January, and February 2026, and excess debt has been confirmed for the second consecutive period. Depending on the policy, the company may be subject to delisting. Metaplanet has 35,102 Bitcoins, so it will have a huge impact. A decision may be made in June 2026.
Under Japanese accounting standards (J-GAAP), it is necessary to mark-to-market the crypto assets held at the end of each fiscal year and record unrealized gains and losses on the profit and loss statement (P/L), so if the price of Bitcoin falls, a ``huge deficit'' will occur in accounting even if there is no cash out
Bitcoin ETF
Bitcoin spot ETFs are primarily approved and trading in the USA, which holds over 83% of the global market share as of early 2024. Canada was a pioneer, holding significant market share,
Massive Redemptions: Following a 35% price slide over three months, investors are reducing exposure, with cumulative outflows pushing to multi-month highs.
As of mid-February 2026, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs are experiencing significant capital outflows, with over $2.5 billion exiting in the nine sessions leading to January 30th, and over $400 million leaving on February 12th alone. This trend is driven by rising Treasury yields, a strong dollar, and investors trimming exposure, with Bitcoin falling below $66,000.
Average Cost Basis: The average cost basis for many ETF investors is around $84,990–$90,000, meaning many holders are sitting on significant unrealized losses.
The current environment shows investors, particularly institutions, taking a more cautious stance, resulting in a trend of moving capital out of these vehicles rather than "buying the dip
ETFs may close due to a lack of investor interest or poor returns. For investors, the easiest way to exit an ETF investment is to sell it on the open market. Liquidation of ETFs is strictly regulated; when an ETF closes, any remaining shareholders will receive a payout based on what they had invested in the ETF.
Countries
As of early 2026, the largest known government holders are:
United States: Holds the largest known amount of Bitcoin, estimated at approximately 198,000–328,000 BTC, mostly from seizures (e.g., Silk Road).
China: Holds an estimated 190,000–194,000 BTC, largely confiscated from the PlusToken Ponzi scheme in 2020.
United Kingdom: Holds approximately 61,000–61,245 BTC, primarily seized from money laundering operations.
Ukraine: Holds roughly 46,351 BTC, largely accumulated through official declarations and donations.
Bhutan: Holds over 11,000–13,000 BTC, accumulated through state-run mining initiatives utilizing their hydroelectric resources.
El Salvador: Holds over 6,000–7,500 BTC, making it the first country to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender and actively purchase it as a strategic reserve.
Other Holdings: Countries like Finland, Georgia, and Venezuela also hold small, seized amounts of Bitcoin.
Future Developments: In 2026, Pakistan announced the creation of a government-led Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.
A ``National Bitcoin Strategic Stockpile'' bill has been submitted in the Brazilian House of Representatives, with a plan to purchase 1 million BTC in 5 years.For this bill to become law, it will need to be passed by the House of Representatives and the Senate, and approved by the President. Will it be established around 2027?
Elements that Bitcoin will go up
A ``National Bitcoin Strategic Stockpile'' bill has been submitted in the Brazilian House of Representatives, with a plan to purchase 1 million BTC in 5 years.For this bill to become law, it will need to be passed by the House of Representatives and the Senate, and approved by the President. Will it be established around 2027?
Due to the halving, Bitcoin could become scarce.
Japan will also have lower tax rates starting in 2028.
Public Bitcoin Treasury Companies Bitcoin Purchase Averages Per BTC Bitcoin Price 67,000 USD 2026 Feb 12th
Unrealized Loss (Paper Losses) = Average Purchase Cost Per Bitcoin - Current Bitcoin Price (USD 67000) X Total Bitcoin
